ELECTIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA � 11 APRIL 2004

June 2004

I just glanced at my thumbnail. The indelible ink is just past halfway. Can you believe that it was more than a month and a half that we all voted (ok, only 76,73% of us (15 863 554)).

Here�s my take on it.

ANC - President Thabo Mbeki

Hey, what a stunning victory (69.68% of the vote). Although, you shouldn�t pat yourself on the back too hard as you maintained your existing base and only added just fewer than 3% to your arsenal. I�m sure you won 2% of the vote from the IFP (which augers well for us as it means that we are not voting along tribal lines as much as we used to). However, next time I believe that it will be a different ball game. I think you, like all the other parties, are going to have to change your strategy somewhat in the next election. Struggle politics and old apartheid rhetoric will not cut it any more - take note AZAPO (0.27% of the vote) and PAC (0.73% of the vote). There is a huge block of voters who are only 15 � 17 years old now and will be eligible to vote next time. Struggle politics is not going to cut it with them � they�re more into Moola�s, Diesel, Levis and YDE � the battle of the brands. The struggle is as distant to them as Piet Retief and the Battle of Blood River was to me when I was their age. You�ve promised them jobs, wealth and a great lifestyle. Best you deliver!

Democratic Alliance - Tony Leon

Tony, what happened to the Democratic Alliance? You wanted 30% of the vote (I�m assuming that was with your alliance partner, the IFP (talk about getting into bed with the wrong mistress). Admittedly, the DA has improved (from 9.56% in 1999 to 12.37% in 2004). This must, however, be ringing huge alarm bells because this is one party that is still relying on the White vote (tough, because a chunk of them voted for Patricia and for the ANC). Who did the math? There are close on 500 000 Whites freezing in England and goodness knows how many are dying of boredom in Australia and Canada. They aren�t allowed to vote (maybe if they were in jail they would be able to ;-)). So where were you expecting to get your votes from? You increased your vote by a little more than 2% because you picked up the disgruntled followers of the NNP (the rest went to Patricia and the ANC). What does this mean? I suppose it means that you have not persuaded Black voters that you are a viable alternative. Tony, I believe you have taken the party as far as you can. You�ve done a sterling job. I believe you can do a lot of good taking the fight to the committees in Parliament (this is where all the horse trading happens and where our destinies in SA are really shaped, in any case). It is time to hand over the baton to a Black leader if the DA has any hope of a reasonable showing in the next elections. I fear that the Independent Democrats are going to eat into your base come 2009.

Just a brief note on leadership. Most leaders don�t know when to step down. The very thing they created, they destroy because they don�t have the ability to take it to the next level (ask Napoleon, Churchill, Taylor and Aristede).

IFP

Nothing I can really say here, except that you lost the plot and need to go back to the drawing board. I think its time the young Turks took over and kicked out the old guard.

NNP - Martinus van Schalkwyk

Martinus, you were always going to come up short. Not really your fault � it is hard to come out from the huge shadow cast by F.W. de Klerk. Everyone perceived the NNP to be the lackey of the ANC (ok, not everyone � 257 824 thought otherwise).

Independent Democrats - Patricia de Lille

A great show Patricia. I realised you were going to do OK, when my uncle who is as right as a right-winger can get, said that the only worthwhile person voting for in this election was you. In print this statement sounds trite � but if my uncle can change, there is huge hope for this country. Some gym buddies and I discussed you in the sauna (we solve all South Africa�s problems in 20 minutes in this arena ;-)) and we believe you�ll get 20% of the vote next time around (most of it at the expense of the DA). I�ll be watching you closely over the next five years (please don�t do anything to blot your copybook � like buy a Mercedes Benz or get involved in an arms scandal.)

Copyright 2004 by Jacques de Villiers 

This article may be copied or republished with the following credit:
"By Jacques de Villiers, Inspirational Speaker, Johannesburg, South Africa.
www.jacquesdevilliers.com "

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